The outlook for America looks grim, but that could quickly change

Joe biden has been dreaming of moving into the White House since at least 1987, when he first ran for president. How those dreams must have differed from the reality this week. The official toll (代价，伤亡人数) of American deaths from covid-19 has passed 400,000. By the end of his first 100 days it may have passed 500,000. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs. Instead of observing the triumph (胜利，凯旋) of democracy in eastern Europe from the Oval Office, as the victor of the election in 1988 did, Mr Biden must contend with (对付，斗争) democratic decay (衰退) at home. It is not an auspicious (有助于成功的，有利的；吉祥的) start. Yet, unlikely as it sounds, in the next few months the view from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue could improve dramatically.

Mending America starts with getting the virus under control. Vaccinating (接种) the population will be a formidable (强大的；艰难的) operation that will test the ability of federal, state and local bureaucracies (繁文褥节；官僚政治) to co-operate (合作). A slick (光滑的，聪明的) campaign of the type the federal government masterminded (策划，组织，操纵) to eradicate (灭绝，根除) polio (小儿麻痹) would save many lives. Yet even an imperfect vaccination programme will make a huge difference by the time spring turns into summer. Warmer weather, and hence longer spent outdoors, will help too. Covid-19 spreads exponentially (指数地). But once the number of people each person infects falls below one, it also dissipates (浪费；使…消散) exponentially.

This in turn will help America’s economic recovery. Though the labour market is about as depressed as it was when Mr Biden was sworn in as Barack Obama’s vice-president in the teeth of the financial crisis, this downturn is very different. Real disposable income (可支配收入) probably rose at its fastest rate for two decades in 2020, a measure of the huge stimulus pumped into the economy by the federal government. The banking system looks sound (健全，声音，有能力的). And the economic pain is not widespread, but concentrated among workers in businesses that depend on cramming (死记硬背，恶补，塞满) lots of people into confined spaces. Many of them will find their services in demand again from Americans once they emerge from a year of hibernation (冬眠；过冬).

Taking advantage of how the federal government can borrow at virtually no cost, Mr Biden’s team is set on another $1.9trn fiscal (财政的，国库的) stimulus, bringing the total budget support since the pandemic hit to 27% of pre-crisis gdp. He may not be able to get that past the Senate (参议院), nor is it clear the economy needs all of it (see article). But even a trimmed-down version of the Biden opening bid—more money for vaccine distribution, extending unemployment insurance and expanding child tax credits (免税优惠政策)—would have big effects. The tax-credit change alone could halve (减半) child poverty (see Briefing).

As for the political crisis that required 25,000 troops on the street at Mr Biden’s inauguration (就职典礼), its causes will not soon fade. The Republican Party that became organised around a principle of loyalty to a man who has no loyalty to anything apart from himself, a dangerous coddling (溺爱) of racist factions (派系) and the rise of alternative facts: all were decades in the making. But the FBI is watching threats from domestic terrorism. The former president is just a citizen who might run for office again in 2024, assuming Congress does not bar (禁止) him from doing so after his impeachment trial (弹劾审判). And Mr Biden at his inauguration declared his clear support for the rule of law and racial equality—which at another time might have sounded like platitudes (陈词滥调；平凡；陈腐).

See you tomorrow