zuckerberg

扎克伯克的十年展望

过去十年中的每个新年，我都会设立个人的挑战。我的目标是在运营Facebook的日常工作之外以新的方式得到成长。为此我学习了普通话、码代码为家里写了一个AI助手、阅读了更多的书籍，也经常去跑步，学习狩猎还有做饭，参加公共演讲也更加的自在了。

当我刚开始面对这些挑战时，我几乎所有的时间都花在建立Facebook网站上（Facebook当时主要还是一个网站）。现在有许多东西需要学习。我们正在Facebook上构建许多不同的应用程序和技术-从新的私人社交平台到增强现实和虚拟现实，并承担了更多的社会责任。在Facebook之外，我现在还是一个父亲，我喜欢与家人共度时光，做慈善事业，花时间提升自己这些年来重新捡起来的运动和一些爱好。尽管我很高兴在过去的十年中每年都面临这些挑战，但该是时候做些不同的事情了。

相比于关注逐年的挑战，这十年我将设立更加长远的目标，就是我希望2030年世界和我的生活将会是怎样的，以便我可以确保我专注于这些事情上。届时，如果一切顺利，我的女儿 Max 就要上高中了，到那时我们会拥有这样的技术-无论我们身处何地与另一个人联系时，它都能让我们感觉那个人就似真正的出现在你面前一样，而科学研究将推动治愈和预防足够的疾病，将我们的平均预期寿命再延长2.5年。以下是我认为的一些在未来十年中重要的事情：

世代的变革

我创建Facebook，想给人们一个发声的平台的原因之一就是我认为它可以增强我们这一代人的力量–我觉得我们有很多重要的事情要说，而且没有得到足够的倾听。事实证明，不仅仅是我这一代人感到被边缘化，需要更多的发出自己的声音，而这些工具为社会上许多不同的群体赋予了力量。我很高兴更多的人有了发言权，但在解决我所希望的重要问题上，还没有带来世代的变革。我认为这将在这十年内发生。

时至今日，我们社会中许多重要的机构仍无法充分解决年轻人所面临的问题-不管是气候变化问题，还是昂贵的教育、住房和医保的成本。但是随着千禧一代和更多的年轻一代可以参与投票，我期待这种情况将能发生迅速的改变。到本十年末，我希望更多的机构是由千禧一代所经营，并制定更多的政策以长远的眼光来解决这些问题。

在许多方面来看，Facebook都是一家千禧一代的公司，并且时刻考虑着这一代人的问题。在以我和我爱人命名的机构-中，我们的重点关注是在那些需要长期努力以帮助我们孩子那一代的项目，比如投资治愈、预防和管理孩子一生中的所有疾病的项目，或者是投资那些使初等教育更加个性化、更加的符合学生的需求得项目。在接下来的十年中，我们将更加专注于资金筹措，给年轻的企业家、科学家个领导人提供一个平台，以实现这些变革。

新的私人社交平台

互联网的强大力量使我们能够与任何地方的任何人建立联系。这极大的增强了人们的力量，我们的关系和机会不再仅仅局限于我们所居住的地方。我们现在是这个包含所有活力，文化和经济机会的数十亿大的社区中的一员。

但是，作为如此庞大的社区的一部分存在其本身的挑战，我们渴望有自己的隐私。当我在一个小镇里长大时，拥有自己的一个职业定位和目标感很容易。但是对于数十亿人来说，很难找到自己独特的角色。在接下来的十年里，一些最重要的社会基础设施将帮助我们重建各种较小的社区，从而再一次带给我们隐私感和亲密感。

这是让我感到最兴奋的创新领域之一。在接下来的5年多的时间里，我们的数字社交环境将有很大的不同，将重新强调私人互动并帮助我们建立我们生活中所需的较小的社区。

分散的机会

在过去的十年中，经济增长最快的是科技行业。在接下来的十年里，我期望科技将继续创造机会，但是时通过是经济的所有其他部分更好的利用技术并实现更快速的增长。我们最关注的领域是帮助小型的企业。通过我们的服务，已经超过1.4亿个小型企业吸引了客户（大部分是免费的）。今天，这种形式表现为企业在Facebook, Instagram或者WhatsApp上建立账户，然后与人们免费交流或者购买广告以更广泛地传播他们的信息。在未来的十年中，我们希望侯建商业和支付工具，以使每个小企业都可以轻松的访问以前只有大公司才能拥有的技术。

如果我们能实现这个目标，那么任何人都可以通过Instagram上的店面销售产品，或者通过Messenger传达信息并未客户提供支持，或者通过WhataApp以低成本将钱从汇回另一个国家，这将为在世界范围内创造更多的机会大有帮助。归根结底，一个强大而稳定的经济来自各个领域成功的人们，而做到这一点的最好方法是使小企业可以有效的成为科技公司。

下一代计算平台

2010年达的技术平台是手机。在2000年代以前的平台是关于网络的，而1990年代的平台是台式计算机。每个计算平台都变得无处不在，与我们互动自然。尽管我希望手机在整个十年中仍是我们的主要设备，但在2020年代的某个时刻，我们将在增强现实眼镜中取得突破，这将重新定义我们与技术的关系。

增强现实和虚拟现实是要提供一种临场感，让你感觉你就身处于另外一个地方或与另一个人在一起。下一个技术平台将帮助我们在彼此之间的交流时更加的现实化，而不会使我们更加的远离周围的人，并帮助技术摆脱困境。即使某些早期的设备看起来笨拙，但我认为它们将是迄今为止人类所构建的所有平台中，最人类化和社会化的。

可以在任何地方“存在”的能力也将帮助我们解决当今社会最突出的问题，例如住房成本不断上涨和地理位置上的机会不平等等问题。今天，很多人觉得他们必须搬到城市里去，因为那里就是工作的所在。但是，许多城市的住房不足，因此住房成本飞涨，而生活质量却在下降。想象一下，如果你可以居住在自己选择的任何地方，可以在其他任何地方访问任何工作。如果我们做到我们正在做的这件事，那么到2030年，这应该更加接近现实。

新的治理形式

下一个十年的主要问题之一是：我们应该如何管理互联网赋能的大型新数字社区？像Facebook这样的平台必须权衡我们所有人都重视的社会价值观，例如在言论自由与安全之间，或者在隐私与执法之间，或者在创建开放系统与锁定数据和访问之间。很少有明确的“正确”答案，而且在许多情况下，以对社区来说合理的方式做出决定也很重要。从这个角度来看，我认为私人公司不应做出太多涉及基本民主价值观的重要决定。

解决此问题的一种方法是通过监管的方式。只要我们的政府被认为是合法的，通过民主程序建立的规则就会比仅仅由公司定义的规则增加了更多的合法性和信任。我认为，在许多领域中，政府建立更清晰的规则将有所帮助，包括选举，有害内容，隐私和数据可移植性。我呼吁在这些领域制定新法规，希望在未来十年内，我们有对互联网更明确的规则。

解决这个问题的另一种甚至更好的方法是通过建立新的社区自治规则。我们正在创建的监督委员会就是独立治理的一个例子。很快，你将可以对自己不同意的有关内容决定向独立委员会提出上诉，该委员会将最终决定是否允许这些事情。在这十年里，我希望利用自己的职位建立更多的社区治理委员会和更多类似的机构。如果这种方法可行，那么未来它将成为其他在线社区的榜样。

结语

这十年我们还有很多工作要做，有很多我们需要学习以帮助实现这一切的知识，希望你新的一年和新的十年有一个好的开始。这是伟大的2020年代。

Phrase

go a long way towards：大大有助于

At the end of the day：归根结底，到了最后

be off to ：动身去，前往

be off to a good start：有一个好的开始

Original：

Every new year of the last decade I set a personal challenge. My goal was to grow in new ways outside my day-to-day work running Facebook. These led me to learn Mandarin, code an AI assistant for my home, read more books, run a lot more, learn to hunt and cook, and get more comfortable with public speaking.

When I started these challenges, my life was almost all about building the Facebook website. (It was mostly a website at the time.) Now there’s so much more to learn from. At Facebook, we’re building lots of different apps and technology – ranging from a new private social platform to augmented and virtual reality – and we’re handling a lot more social responsibility. And outside Facebook, I’m a father now and I love spending time with my family, working on our philanthropy, and improving at the sports and hobbies I’ve picked up over the years. So while I’m glad I did annual challenges over the last decade, it’s time to do something different.

This decade I’m going to take a longer term focus. Rather than having year-to-year challenges, I’ve tried to think about what I hope the world and my life will look in 2030 so I can make sure I’m focusing on those things. By then, if things go well, my daughter Max will be in high school, we’ll have the technology to feel truly present with another person no matter where they are, and scientific research will have helped cure and prevent enough diseases to extend our average life expectancy by another 2.5 years. Here are some of the things that I think will be important in the next decade:

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Generational Change

When I started Facebook, one of the reasons I cared about giving people a voice was that I thought it would empower my generation – which I felt had important things to say and weren’t being listened to enough. It turned out it wasn’t just my generation that felt marginalized and needed more voice though, and these tools have given power to lots of different groups across society. I’m glad more people have voice, but it hasn’t yet brought about the generational change in addressing important issues I had hoped for. I think that will happen this decade.

Today, many important institutions in our society still aren’t doing enough to address the issues younger generations face – from climate change to runaway costs of education, housing and healthcare. But as millennials and more members of younger generations can vote, I expect this to start changing rapidly. By the end of this decade, I expect more institutions will be run by millennials and more policies will be set to address these problems with longer term outlooks.

In many ways, Facebook is a millennial company with the issues of this generation in mind. At the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, our focus is on very long term efforts that will primarily help our children’s generation, like investing in curing, preventing and managing all diseases in our children’s lifetimes, or making primary education more personalized to students needs. Over the next decade, we’ll focus more on funding and giving a platform to younger entrepreneurs, scientists, and leaders to enable these changes.

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A New Private Social Platform

The internet gave us the superpower of being able to connect with anyone, anywhere. This is incredibly empowering and means that our relationships and opportunities are no longer confined to just where we live. We’re now part of a community with billions of people in it – with all the dynamism, culture and economic opportunity that brings.

But being part of such a large community creates its own challenges and makes us crave intimacy. When I grew up in a small town, it was easy to have a niche and sense of purpose. But with billions of people, it’s harder to find your unique role. For the next decade, some of the most important social infrastructure will help us reconstruct all kinds of smaller communities to give us that sense of intimacy again.

This is one of the areas of innovation I’m most excited about. Our digital social environments will feel very different over the next 5+ years, re-emphasizing private interactions and helping us build the smaller communities we all need in our lives.

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Decentralizing Opportunity

In the last decade, the fastest growth in the economy has been in the tech industry. In the next decade, I expect technology will continue to create opportunity, but more through enabling all of the other parts of the economy to make better use of technology and grow even faster.

The area we’re most focused on is helping small businesses. Across our services, more than 140 million small businesses already reach customers – mostly for free. Today this takes the form of an entrepreneur setting up an account on Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp, and then either communicating with people for free or buying ads to get their message out more broadly. Over the next decade, we hope to build the commerce and payments tools so that every small business has easy access to the same technology that previously only big companies have had.

If we can make it so anyone can sell products through a storefront on Instagram, message and support their customers through Messenger, or send money home to another country instantly and at low cost through WhatsApp – that will go a long way towards creating more opportunity around the world. At the end of the day, a strong and stable economy comes from people succeeding broadly, and the best way to do that is to make it so small businesses can effectively become technology companies.

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The Next Computing Platform

The technology platform of the 2010s was the mobile phone. The platform of the 2000s before that was about the web, and the 1990s was the desktop computer. Each computing platform becomes more ubiquitously accessible and natural for us to interact with. While I expect phones to still be our primary devices through most of this decade, at some point in the 2020s, we will get breakthrough augmented reality glasses that will redefine our relationship with technology.

Augmented and virtual reality are about delivering a sense of presence – the feeling that you’re right there with another person or in another place. Instead of having devices that take us away from the people around us, the next platform will help us be more present with each other and will help the technology get out of the way. Even though some of the early devices seem clunky, I think these will be the most human and social technology platforms anyone has built yet.

The ability to be “present” anywhere will also help us address some of the biggest social issues of our day – like ballooning housing costs and inequality of opportunity by geography. Today, many people feel like they have to move to cities because that’s where the jobs are. But there isn’t enough housing in many cities, so housing costs are skyrocketing while quality of living is decreasing. Imagine if you could live anywhere you chose and access any job anywhere else. If we deliver on what we’re building, this should be much closer to reality by 2030.

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New Forms of Governance

One of the big questions for the next decade is: how should we govern the large new digital communities that the internet has enabled? Platforms like Facebook have to make tradeoffs on social values we all hold dear – like between free expression and safety, or between privacy and law enforcement, or between creating open systems and locking down data and access. It’s rare that there’s ever a clear “right” answer, and in many cases it’s as important that the decisions are made in a way that feels legitimate to the community. From this perspective, I don’t think private companies should be making so many important decisions that touch on fundamental democratic values.

One way to address this is through regulation. As long as our governments are seen as legitimate, rules established through a democratic process could add more legitimacy and trust than rules defined by companies alone. There are a number of areas where I believe governments establishing clearer rules would be helpful, including around elections, harmful content, privacy, and data portability. I’ve called for new regulation in these areas and over the next decade I hope we get clearer rules for the internet.

Another and perhaps even better way to address this is by establishing new ways for communities to govern themselves. An example of independent governance is the Oversight Board we’re creating. Soon you’ll be able to appeal content decisions you disagree with to an independent board that will have the final decision in whether something is allowed. This decade, I hope to use my position to establish more community governance and more institutions like this. If this is successful, it could be a model for other online communities in the future.

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We’ve got a lot to do this decade and there’s a lot to learn to help make this all happen. I hope your new year and new decade are off to a good start. Here’s to a great 2020s.

See you tomorrow